ブレーク・イーブン・インフレ率(BEI)の低下

ブレーク・イーブン・インフレ率(BEI)が低下しています。

ソース

ブレーク・イーブン・インフレ率(BEI)とは、予想物価上昇率ともいい、将来物価がどう動いていくと金融市場が見ているかを示している指標です。

予想インフレ率とも言いますが、実際のインフレ率とも連動しており、物価に先行して動きます。

BEIが上昇していけば金融を引き締め、下落していけば緩和していきます。

これが下落しているということは将来、物価も下落していくということです。

これだけの金融緩和をしても、なお物価は下落傾向にあるということです。

これ以上の金融緩和をしても同じでしょう。

物価は底が抜けたように下落しています。

リフレ派の失敗と見ていいのではないか。

黒田総裁の任期中(2018年4月まで)の出口戦略は、ほぼ不可能ですから敗戦処理に入った方がいいのではないか。

財務省が公表している最新のBEIは、これです。

ソース

2016年1月29日現在、「0.503%」とあります。

昨年の10月末ごろのBEIは「0.8%」ほどであり、当時は「0.5%」を割れば、日銀は追加の緩和に動かざるを得ないと言われていました。

1月29日時点での財務省発表のBEIは「0.503%」ですが、この記事を読みますと、既にBEIは「0.2%」まで低下しているようです。

マイナス金利政策が原因です。

焦点:日銀マイナス金利が始動、イールド押し下げ効果に自信 ロイター

日銀ではマイナス金利の導入当初から、その直接的な狙いについて、イールドカーブの起点となる短期金利の引き下げで金利全体の低下を促す一方、日銀による物価2%目標達成に向けた強い決意を示すことによってインフレ期待を引き上げ、実質金利を低下させることを「主たる波及メカニズム」(黒田総裁)と説明している。

日銀が重視ているインフレ期待とマイナス金利の関係でも、市場では冷めた声が出ている。

例えば、市場のインフレ期待を示す指標である物価連動国債から算出するブレーク・イーブン・インフレ率(BEI)は、マイナス金利導入前のプラス0.5%程度から足元は同0.2%程度で推移している。

BEIは「0.8%」から「0.2%」まで、わずか4か月程度で下落しています。

日銀が異次元の金融緩和を開始したのが、2013年4月であり、当時は2年でコアCPI「2%」を達成すると述べていました。

2015年4月まで」です。

ところが達成できず、この目標を「2016年前半頃」と先延ばししました。

ところがまた達成できないと見るや、次に「2016年後半頃」と先送り、またまた達成できそうにないために今は「2017年前半頃」とどんどん先送っています。

ところが恐らくこれも達成できません。

来年の4月から消費税が10%に増税されるからです。

日銀がターゲットにしているコアCPI(生鮮食品を除く総合)は、現時点で「0.0%」です。

去年のコアCPIの年間推移はこれです。

ただし消費税増税分の影響である「2%(3月まで)」は差し引いています。

作成:Creator’s Room

目標が達成できない理由を、日銀は原油価格の下落のせいにしていました。

だから生鮮食品と原油価格を除いた日銀版新型コアを、去年の7月からいきなり公表し始めた。

それでも新型コアは今年の1月前月比で「0.2%」下落しています。

日銀は当初原油価格を「1バレル60ドル~70ドル」を想定していましたが、去年の10月30日、これを「1バレル50ドル~60ドル」へとトレンドラインを引き下げています。

ブレーク・イーブン・インフレ率の下落傾向を見ますと、今後も物価は下落していきそうです。

まるで神理の道みたいですね。

コアCPI「2%」の道は、けわしく、遠い。

銀行や民間企業のポートフォリオ・リバランスを言うのですが、資金需要のない国内では実質金利をいくら下げても、中々難しいと思います。

むしろ資本逃避を招いて円安となり、場合によっては悪性インフレとなる可能性が高いと思います。

キャピタル・フライトですね。

どうしても財政破綻をしたいようですな。

40年国債の金利が「0.5%台」を付けるような異常な環境です。

10年物国債の長期金利も、既にマイナスが定着しつつある。

限界は既に過ぎているのでしょうが、ダムから水が少しづつ零れ落ちている状況でしょうか。

あるいはダムに入ったヒビから、ちょろちょろと水が出てきている状況とも言えそうです。

去年からゼロヘッジは、日銀はもう追加の緩和はできないと言っていましたが、その通りになっているようです。

市場は追加の緩和を期待し、要求するが、日銀はもう追加の緩和はできないと言っていました。

去年の12月に補完措置と言う中途半端なことしかできず、今回もマイナス金利政策などという奇策しかできず、市場から冷めた目で見られています。

もうこれ以上の緩和はできないということでしょうね。

身動きが取れず、動けば破綻を早めてしまう。

メドゥーサに睨まれて「石化した日銀」です。

石化」なんて神話かフィクションの世界にしかないのですがね。

神の体、すなわち物質を拝めば徐々に自由を奪われ、最後には「石化」して動けなくなる。

行き詰まるわけです。

中東の神が物質を拝む「偶像崇拝」を厳しく禁止したのも、これが理由かもしれません。

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