ミンスキー・モーメント

日経も1万7000円台を回復しました。

全体的に相場は上昇傾向です。

WTIは30ドル台を維持し、ブレント原油も32ドル台をつけています。

ドバイ原油も27ドル台であり、銅も1ポンド2ドル台を回復しています。

ただバルチック海運指数だけは執拗に下落を続けています。

本日、史上最安値を更新しています。

バルチック海運指数(バルチック・ドライ・インデックス)

345ポイント」です。

国際商品指数であるCRB指数は底を這っているかのような動きですが、ゼロヘッジは2016年後半から2017年初頭にコモディティは底を打つと見ています。

CCI指数(商品チャネル指数)が、2008年のボトム(底)である「350ポイント」を更に下回り、「320ポイント」にまで下がると見ています。

これですね。

CCI指数(商品チャネル指数)

ドルは2016年後半にオーバーシュートし、これと関連してコモディティはアンダーシュートする。

原油価格のベアトレンド(下落傾向)は変わらない。

2017年からの重要なコモディティの回復サイクルに入る前、2008年につけたバレル32ドルをアンダーシュートし、バレル28ドルを試すかもしれない。

コモディティ領域のデフォルトやハイイールド債(ジャンク債)の潜在的なメルトダウンシナリオ、新興国の債務、このようなシナリオは、一方でもうひとつのデフレ・インパルス(衝撃)を促すだろう。

2016年後半から2017年初頭にボトムを確認できればコモディティの下げは終わる。

投資家は2、3年後、商品価格において非常に重要で鋭い上げサイクルを見ることになる。

For Commodities, This Is The Next Great Depression ゼロヘッジ

2、3年後から商品価格は上げサイクルに入り、それが新興国にまで拡大していくと見ています。

しかして株式は長期的な下落トレンドの渦中にあるとも言っています。

JPモルガンが警告です。

The Incredible Shrinking Benefits Of Massive Japanese Money Printing ゼロヘッジ

年初から嫌な記事ですが、日本人は知っておいた方がいいようです。

JPモルガンの最高投資責任者、マイケル・センバレスト氏の2016年の見通しですが、日本に対して言及しています。

ゼロヘッジが引用しているものですが、暗黙のうちに日本の財政破綻を予見しているかのような書きぶりです。

日銀が現在のペースで民間銀行から国債購入を続ければ実際、2016年の終わりまでに国債は枯渇する可能性がある。

その時点で日銀は、銀行以外の民間部門から直接、国債を購入する必要に迫られる。

その時、一体何が起こるのか、本当のことを知っている者はただの一人もいないと言っても過言ではないと思う。

私が会った教授は、このグラフを見て「こんなことを続けることなど不可能だ」と話した。

ひとつだけ確かなことがある。

虎にまたがっている者のように日銀は、もうそれを(金融緩和)やめることができない。

膨れ上がる日本の公的債務の現金化を継続していく以外の選択肢がない。

そして経済的な未知の領域へと、さらにさらに踏み込んでいくことになる。

JPモルガンは、今年の終わりまでに日本国債が枯渇するため、日銀は金融緩和ができなくなると言っていますが、元日銀副総裁、岩田氏は去年の11月に日銀に売れる国債は、あと「150兆円」ほどしかない。

2017年の半ばまでに国債は枯渇し、金融緩和の技術的限界を迎えると述べていました。

岩田氏は「2017年半ば」を限界点とし、JPモルガンのセンバレスト氏は「2016年の終わりまで」と述べています。

IMFは日本に対し金融緩和の限界を「2017年~2018年」と警告していました。

多少の相違はありますが、大体このようなものでしょう。

グラフは茶線が日銀の資産であり、青線が貨幣の流通速度です。

貨幣数量説では簡単に言えば「M(ベースマネー)×V(貨幣の流通速度)=P(物価)×Q(取引量)」という式であらわします。

M×V=P×Q

右辺の「P×Q」は、要はGDPのことであり、日銀が動かせるのは「M」だけです。

「V」と「Q」は一定としますから物価水準の「P」を動かすには日銀が操作できる「M」の量を増減させればいい。

だからこの式で言えば日銀が「M」のベースマネーを増加させれば、物価が上昇してデフレ脱却できるという理屈で大量の資金供給をしています。

ところがこのグラフを見ましても「V」の貨幣の流通速度は一定ではなく、資金供給に比例して低下しています。

ベースマネーを増加させれば物価の「P」が上昇するはずなのですが、実際は「V」の貨幣の流通速度が低下するために物価が上がらないわけです。

貨幣数量説の根拠が崩れています。

大量の資金供給によって富をじゃぶじゃぶにすれば物価が上がるというのは、どうも眉唾です。

しかして日銀は、長期金利の上昇を招くために金融緩和をやめることが、もうできない。

しかして続ければ今年の終わりにも限界がくる。

日本は未知の領域、「アンノーン」の世界に旅立つことになる。

JPモルガンが言う「エコノミック・アンノーン」とは、要は財政破綻の世界でしょう。

その時のことは誰にも分からないと言いますが、日本の財政破綻は世界経済の「ミンスキー・モーメント」となる。

ミンスキー・モーメント」とは債務で世界経済を何とか回してきたけれども、借金し過ぎて首が回らなくなり、ある事件をきっかけに資産の投げ売りをせざるを得なくなる臨界点の事件のことであり、日本の財政破綻は、恐らくこの「ミンスキー・モーメント」となる。

リーマン・ショックの「ミンスキー・モーメント」は、パリバ・ショックと言われています。

世界経済崩壊の「ミンスキー・モーメント」は、このままの状況ですと日本の財政破綻の可能性が高い。

ミンスキー・モーメント」からの回復には長期間必要になるとも言われています。

これは・・今年は洞窟を探しに行くしかないじゃないか。

はやめに他人よりも、いい洞窟を見つけておくしかないじゃないか。

もちろん冗談ですけどね。

ただモルガンの警告は冗談ではすみそうにありません。

今年の末までと言いますと、少ししゃれになりませんね。

しかして一応知っておいた方がいいかもしれません。

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  4. タカタの苦境

  5. 日銀版コアコアCPI 公表へ

  6. 米5月の雇用統計

  7. フィッチが日本国債を1段階格下げ 増税延期で財政に懸念

  8. 不透明な東芝メモリの売却

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  33. Would you allow your government to place a microchip in your body?

    Did you know that is the future we are approaching with RFID Microchip technology?

    Even more importantly, did you know there was a man almost 2000 years ago who prophesied of a cashless society in the last days? This mans name is Jesus.

    Did you know that this RFID Microchip matches perfectly with the Mark of the Beast in Revelation 13:16-18?

    “He(the false prophet) causes all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hand or on their foreheads, and that no one may buy or sell except one who has the mark or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

    Here is wisdom. Let him who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man: His number is 666” (Revelation 13:16-18).

    Referring to the end times, this could only be speaking of a cashless money society, which we have yet to see, but are moving towards. Otherwise we could still buy or sell without the mark among others if physical money was still currency. This mark could not be spiritual, because the word references two different physical locations on the human body. If it was spiritual, it would only say in the forehead.

    Mr. Carl Sanders sat in seventeen New World Order meetings with heads of state officials such as Henry Kissinger and Bob Gates of the CIA to discuss their agenda on how to bring about this one-world system. The US government commissioned Mr. Sanders to design a microchip for identifying and controlling the peoples of the world-a microchip that could be placed under the skin with a hypodermic needle(a quick, convenient process that would be gradually accepted by society).

    Carl Sanders, with a group of engineers behind him, with U.S. grant monies supplied by tax dollars, took on this challenge and designed a microchip that is powered by a lithium battery, rechargeable through the temperature changes in our skin. Without the knowledge of the Bible(Carl was not a Christian at the time), these engineers spent one and a half million dollars doing research on the best and most convenient place to have the microchip placed under the skin.

    Guess what? These researchers found that the forehead and the back of the hand(the two spots Revelation says the mark will go) are not only the most convenient locations, but are also the only viable locations for rapid, consistent temperature changes in the skin to recharge the lithium battery. The RFID chip is approximately seven millimeters in length, .75 millimeters in diameter, about the size of a grain of rice. It is capable of holding pages upon pages of information about you. All your general history, work history, crime record, health history, and financial data can be stored on this microchip.

    Mr. Sanders believes that this chip, which he regretfully helped engineer, is the “mark” spoken about in Revelation 13:16-18. The original Greek word for “mark” is “charagma,” which means a “scratch or etching.” It is also interesting to note that the number 666 is actually a word in the original Greek language. The word is “chi xi stigma,” with the last part, “stigma,” also meaning “to stick or prick. Carl believes this is referring to the use of a hypodermic needle being poked into the human flesh to insert the microchip.”

    Carl Sanders spoke with a doctor asking what would happen if the lithium contained within the RFID chip leaked into the body. The doctor responded by saying a terrible sore would appear in that spot. This is what the book of Revelation has to say:

    “And the first(Angel) went, and poured out his vial on the earth; and there fell a noisome and grievous sore on the men which had the mark of the beast, and on them which worshipped his image” (Revelation 16:2).

    The Bible tells us we cannot buy or sell without the mark of the beast, or the number of its name. This number is identified as 666. The Bible tells us to calculate the number 666.

    In this world we are identified by numbers, whether it is our social security number, drivers license, or cards used to make payments. The number of the beast represents something like this, to identify us in a one world government system. This number will be contained within the microchip to identify each and every one of us so we may buy or sell.

    To see the hidden meaning behind calculating the number 666(6+6+6=18), and how it matches up with scipture perfectly,

    Go to: https://biblefreedom.com/rfid-mark-revealed

    The Bible warns us in the last days that a false prophet will rise up doing miracles to deceive many to take this mark. At all costs, do not take it!

    “Then a third angel followed them, saying with a loud voice, “If anyone worships the beast and his image, and receives his mark on his forehead or on his hand, he himself shall also drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out full strength into the cup of His indignation. He shall be tormented with fire and brimstone in the presence of the holy angels and in the presence of the Lamb. And the smoke of their torment ascends forever and ever; and they have no rest day or night, who worship the beast and his image, and whoever receives the mark of his name” (Revelation 14:9-11).

    Out of all the world religions, how can we be sure the Bible got it right? The scientific data has established and continues to support that the universe once had a beginning in which space, time and matter were created. This is known as the big bang.

    “The non-biblical religions tell us that god or god’s create within space and time that eternally exist. The Bible stands alone and says that time and space don’t exist until God creates the universe.” – Hugh Ross

    Did you know that the real Noah’s Ark was discovered where the Bible told us it would be with the correct dimensions? As well as hard evidence for the destruction of Sodom Gomorrah and the Exodus account of the Red Sea crossing?

    The Bible is by far the most translated and read book in the history of the world, full of predictive prophecies. Wouldn’t you expect God’s word to be so?

    This information can all be found at https://biblefreedom.com

    “And He(Jesus) said to me(Apostle John), “It is done! I am the Alpha and the Omega, the Beginning and the End. I will give of the fountain of the water of life freely to him who thirsts” (Revelation 21:6).

    “Jesus answered and said to her, “Whoever drinks of this water will thirst again, but whoever drinks of the water(the Holy Spirit) that I shall give him will never thirst. But the water that I shall give him will become in him a fountain of water springing up into everlasting life” (John 4:13-14).

    “Jesus answered, “Most assuredly, I say to you, unless one is born of water and the Spirit, he cannot enter the kingdom of God. That which is born of the flesh is flesh, and that which is born of the Spirit is spirit. Do not marvel that I said to you, ‘You must be born again.’ (John 3:5-6).

    All religion is man-made. Man can create religion, but no one can create the Holy Spirit that comes from God out of Heaven. Jesus never told us to follow a religion or denomination:

    “Then He(Jesus) said to them all, “If anyone desires to come after Me, let him deny himself, and take up his cross daily, and follow Me” (Luke 9:23).

    You can receive the Spirit of God right now. If you are willing to humble yourself before the Lord, and believe in your heart that God raised Him from the dead on the third day; call out to God and ask Him to forgive your sins, to receive His Holy Spirit. If you are genuine, He is faithful and just to forgive, and He will give you a new heart, a renewing of the mind, restoring everything the devil has stolen from you; making you like a child again, through the sanctification of the Spirit.

    When we receive the Spirit of God, we become born from above, and His seed resides within us. We no longer make a practice of sin, but rather turn away from unrighteousness and receive the righteousness of Christ.

    From that point onward, we must put all our hope and trust in Jesus, and grow to walk in His ways, not straying from the narrow path. For Jesus says,

    “Enter by the narrow gate; for wide is the gate and broad is the way that leads to destruction, and there are many who go in by it. Because narrow is the gate and difficult is the way which leads to life, and there are few who find it” (Matthew 7:13-14).

    “Holy, holy, holy, Lord God Almighty(One God), Who was(Jesus) and is(YHWH) and is to come(Jesus)!” (Revelation 4:8).

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