世界経済の崩壊

日銀の国債保有残高が、ついに「400兆円」の大台を突破しました。

ソース

日銀の国債保有は対GDP比で「80%」となります。

来年の今頃は対GDP比で「96%」を超えている計算になります。

来年か再来年には限界がきそうです。

家計調査もでましたが、消費支出は「マイナス4.6%」と悪い数字です。

ソース

エンゲル係数は、8月は「26.76%」と4か月連続で「26%」を超えています。

作成 : Creator’s Room

日銀が約束したコアCPI「2%」のインフレターゲットですが、黒田総裁の任期中には実現しそうにありません。

コアCPIは「マイナス0.5%」と今年は一度も物価がプラスになったことがありません。

基調も下落傾向であり、日銀が正確に物価の基調をはかる上で重視している日銀版新型コアも8月はこれです。

0.4%」まで低下しています。

物価の基調も下落傾向です。

グラフにしますとこうなります。

明らかに物価の基調は下落傾向にあり、デフレが進化しています。

今年に入って唯一良いのは実質賃金であり、8月まで一度もマイナスになったことがありません。

8月は速報で「0.5%」でした。

毎月勤労統計調査 平成28年8月分結果速報 厚生労働省

潜在成長率は「0.3%」と変わらずであり、一貫して低下を続けています。

今週の指標 No.1150 内閣府

潜在成長率の継続的低下に危機感を持っている記事がロイターに出ました。

コラム:潜在成長率引き上げの目標化を、現状のままなら債務急膨張も ロイター

安倍晋三政権は2020年ごろまでに名目国内総生産(GDP)を600兆円に押し上げる目標を掲げているが、潜在成長率を高めないまま、強引に600兆円を達成しようとすると、債務残高が急膨張するリスクも高まる。

内閣府によると、日本の潜在成長率は0.3%程度まで下がっており、それに見合った「低成長」とも言える。

だが、潜在成長率に見合った0.3%の成長にとどまると、2020年になっても600兆円はおろか、550兆円にも達しない計算になる。

潜在成長率を押し上げないまま、600兆円に達する近道は何か。

それは積極財政を20年まで継続し、財政の力で無理やり達成するということになるのではないか。

言い換えれば、赤字国債の発行増などを伴って、財政支出を拡大する動きが、いつまでたっても止まらないという展開だ。

潜在成長率の引き上げこそ、「閉塞ニッポン」にとっての活路であり、国民の実感を伴った経済成長につながると考える。

この記者の言う通りでしょうが、既に「手遅れ」です。

5年、10年と悠長なことを言っておりますが、日本の潜在成長率は1991年以降、上げ下げを繰り返しながら一貫して低下しているわけであり、内閣府によれば1988年の潜在成長率「5.0%」をピークに28年かけて「0.3%」まで下がっている。

低下を続ける日本の潜在成長率 2016年6月21日

日銀の試算によれば1990年の「3.99%」をピークに「0.23%」まで潜在成長率は下がっているのです。

利潤追求がその制度の核に組み込まれている資本主義は、構造的というよりも制度的に致命的な欠陥を抱えており、人類の生命を神から見た「下」に向かわせる主義ですから崩壊か根源的変革かは目に見えている。

しかも富の大元である中央銀行が作り上げた金融緩和による史上最悪の世界的バブル崩壊を、市場は予測しており、それがいつかを論じている段階です。

ビル・グロース氏は、2017年以降と言い、新債券王と言われるジェフリー・ガンドラック氏は、2018年の市場クラッシュを警告しています。

恐らく最後のバブルになるのでしょうが、リーマン・ショックを超えることは間違いありません。

世界経済が、ほんとに崩壊するかもしれない。

苦戦が続く欧米系ヘッジファンド~視線は既に中央銀行バブル崩壊タイミングへ FX Works

「ヘッジファンド勢」は足もとの相場状況での売買よりも、先が見えなくなってきている「中央銀行」バブルの崩壊がどのようなタイミングで起こることになるのかに非常に関心を高めているようで、その多くが相場の戻り売りを画策していることが窺われます。

たしかに「リーマンショック」からすでに8年目に入っているわけですから、どのタイミングで暴落が起こってもおかしくはない状況で、さらに各国の「中央銀行」の「金融政策」がこれまでのように相場をうまく操作できなくなってきているところから見ても、どこかでこの「中央銀行」バブルが破綻すると考えるのはおかしな話ではありません。

「FRB」の利上げが、後ずれする中にあって、米国の証券市場はまだもう少し延命するのではないかとの見方もでてきていますが、2017年もしくは長く持っても2018年までには大きく相場が崩れる可能性を指摘する声が高まってきていることもまた事実です。

債券の帝王「ビル・グロース」は2017年以降、新債券の帝王「ジェフリー・ガンドラック」は、2018年の「クラッシュ」を予想しており、ファンドを代表する人物はみな下方向の目線が強くなりつつあります。

とにかく投資のプロ集団が相場の下方向への動きを気にし始めており、そこに起死回生の利益を求めようとする動きになっていることについては我々もかなりしっかり意識しておく必要がありそうです。

中央銀行は、膨らませた風船が破裂しないように、徐々に空気を抜いていくつもりだと思いますが、規模が大きすぎるのです。

日本は典型でしょうが世界的にも金利が上昇傾向に転ずれば、この最悪のバブルははじけると見られています。

FRBは、じっくりと時間をかけて利上げしていくでしょうが、うまくいく保証はありません。

新債券の帝王・ガンドラック氏はこう言っています。

世界的な金利上昇、市場は財政出動の足音察知=ガンドラック氏 ロイター

米資産運用会社ダブルライン・キャピタル(DBLTX.O)を率いる著名投資家ジェフリー・ガンドラック氏は、世界的な金利上昇が起きつつあるとの見方を示した。

ガンドラック氏は「私がこれまで35年運用の世界にいて学んだのは、マーケットに『絶対』はない、ということ。

『金利は永遠に低いままで絶対上がらない』などと言われるが、それはつまり、金利上昇が現実に起きつつあると考えるべきなのだ。

最近の市場をよく観察すれば、現にドイツ、日本、米国と金利は静かに上昇している」と話した。

今後はマイナス金利政策を放棄し、財政政策による景気刺激を選択するだろうとの見方を示した。

いわゆるヘリコプターマネー政策が実施される可能性もあり得るとしている。

ウォールストリートのアナリスト・マイケル・ペント氏も史上最悪のバブル崩壊を警告です。

「史上最悪のバブル崩壊迫る」米著名アナリスト、ペント氏が警告 ZUU

リーマン・ショックは、ただの予兆に過ぎないと言っています。

ペント氏は、現在の世界経済が「かつて目撃したことがないほど緊迫したレベルに達している」と、9月17日に配信された米インターネット経済番組で発言した。

ペント氏の懸念は、2007年には6兆ドル(約603兆6600億円)だった中央銀行のバランス総額が過去9年間で21兆ドル(約2112 8100億円)にまで膨れあがっており、今後も毎月2000億ドル(約20兆1220億円)のペースで増え続けると予測されている点に起因する。

リーマン・ショック前の2008年8月末、FRBのバランスシートは、わずか「9280億ドル(93兆円)」ほどでした。

今はそれが「4.5兆ドル(450兆円)」にまで膨れ上がっています。

日銀もリーマン・ショック前の2008年8月末の総資産は「110兆円」に過ぎませんでしたが、今は「460兆円」に膨れ上がっています。

世界的規模で中央銀行による空前のバブルが作られたことになります。

ペント氏はこう言います。

その先に待ち受けているのは、リーマンショックをはるかに上回る規模の経済危機だ。

「今度のバブルはすべてを一掃する。

あらゆる債券は勿論、ダイアモンド、車、REIT(不動産投資信託)まで、安全な資産など存在しなくなる」

というペント氏は、これほどまでに危険なリスクを生みだした各国の中央銀行を厳しく非難。

しかしブレーキがかかるどころか崩壊に向かって加速しているとしか思えない世界経済を目の当たりにし、「悲観的な状況だ。

持ちなおすのは不可能だろう」と、秒読みにはいったバブル崩壊に最後の警鐘を鳴らしている。

当サイトの神理が全世界的に広がっていく過程で異常な天災も同時に起こってきますし、戦争もあるかもしれません。

テール・イベントではなく、ブラックスワン・イベントとなる。

これだけのバブルを富の大元を握っている中央銀行が、みずから世界的規模で作ってしまった限り、世界経済の崩壊は避けられないかもしれません。

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