低下を続ける日本の潜在成長率

内閣府が公表している日本の潜在成長率が、下方修正されています。

今週の指標 No.1145

今月の6日に潜在成長率は、「0.4%」から「0.3%」に下方修正されていました。

安倍政権発足時は「0.5%」の潜在成長率でしたが、ほぼ半減です。

以前、内閣府が公表していた潜在成長率は、これです。

これらの数字が、概ね下方修正されています。

内閣府ではなく、日銀が公表している潜在成長率はこれです。

グラフ作成 : Creator’s Room

内閣府の数字は、東日本大震災の影響で2011年と2012年の数字が抜けているのですが、日銀の方にはあります。

90年代緩やかに低下しながら、1997年、1998年のアジア通貨危機で低下圧力がかかり、「0.47%」で一旦はボトム(底)をつけています。

その後、緩やかに上昇しながら、2001年のアメリカ同時多発テロで、またも急激に低下していきます。

アジア通貨危機後と同じ潜在成長率「0.47%」まで低下します。

同時多発テロ後は、2005年の第2クウォーターの「1.21%」まで上昇していくのですが、2008年リーマン・ショックでまた急激に低下していきます。

この時は「0.21%」まで低下しています。

その後、緩やかに回復していくのですが、2011年またも東日本大震災によって潜在成長率は下押し圧力がかかり「0.1%」まで低下します。

何も大きなイベントがなければ、緩やかに回復していくのですが、何か大きな事件やイベントが起こる度に潜在成長率が削られています。

何か大きな事件が起こる度に、日本の潜在成長率は下がり、衰退させられているのです。

アベノミクスや三本の矢、あるいは異次元の金融緩和等、表面的にはかまびすしいわけですが、潜在的には確実に衰退しているのが分かります。

現時点の内閣府が公表している最新の潜在成長率は、これです。

ソース : GDPギャップ、潜在成長率の最新データ(Excel形式:54KB)

安倍政権が発足した2012年12月の潜在成長率は「0.5%」ですが、以後一度も上昇しておらず、一貫して低下しています。

2014年の第二四半期から「0.3%」となっているのが分かります。

これはリーマン・ショック後の数字と同じです。

そこまで落ちている。

年間でも去年2015年は「0.3%」の潜在成長率に下方修正されています。

日銀が推計している日本の潜在成長率「0.23%」と卑近してきています。

潜在成長率は、その国の経済の基本的な実力であり、これが衰退しているということは、国が衰退しているということです。

日本は何かのイベントが起こる度に衰退していっているのです。

ブレグジットもその一つになるのでしょうか。

最新の世論調査では、やや残留派が優勢に見えます。

英世論調査、EU残留派が復調傾向 議員殺害以降に勢い盛り返す ロイター

調査会社ORB

残留 53% 離脱 46%

調査機関「NatCen」

残留 53% 離脱 47%

調査会社「YouGov」

残留 42% 離脱 44%

ここの「tableタブ」で世論調査の推移が分かりますが、現時点ではこうなっています。

6月20日現在、サーベイションの調査では、やや離脱派が盛り返しています。

残留 45%

離脱 44%

前回の調査よりも離脱派が2ポイント回復しています。

ただ浮動票が11%もありますので、いざ投票日となりますと保守的に動く傾向がありますから残留派が有利なのではないか。

結局、大騒ぎして、最後には「残留」という可能性が高そうに見えます。

こういうことを言われている方もおりますので、事を荒立てない方がいいかもしれません。

ロジャーズ氏:「確率100%」で米国は1年以内にリセッション入り ブルームバーグ

確率100%で、来年3月までにアメリカはリセッションすると言っています。

確かに今年に入ってアメリカはよくありません。

しかもジム・ロジャーズ氏は、2019年までにアメリカ経済は、膨大な債務で破綻していくと予測しています。

来年3月までにリセッション(景気後退)し、その後、破綻するまで悪化していくと見ていることになります。

日本も金融政策から財政政策に軸足を移しそうですし、そうなれば回復基調のプライマリー・バランスが悪化していくことになる。

もうそれしか手がないわけですね。

この財政政策は、ヘリコプター・マネーになると思います。

というのは中途半端な財政出動では、効果が期待できないからです。

このヘリマネを除くと日銀も政府も何もこれはという政策がない。

下手に追加の緩和を行いますと市場から失望売りとなりますし、前回のマイナス金利政策など効果は2日しかもちませんでした。

結局は、この政策以外に思い浮かばない。

ただこれを実行すれば、日本は大惨事を招く。

つまりそこまで追い詰められているということでしょう。

かくして神の体を追ってきた世界は、その反作用を受け、破綻していくこととなる。

物質は矛盾を意味しており、その矛盾によって崩壊していくわけです。

統一と矛盾は一実在の両方面であり、統一がなくなれば矛盾もなくなり、矛盾がなくなれば統一もなくなる。: 西田幾多郎

統一即矛盾で実在であり、これは宗教的には実相即方便と言われてきた実在論です。

統一と矛盾を切って、矛盾のみを拝むゆえにみずからの選択で崩壊していくわけです。

それは本当に在るもの、すなわち実在とは言えないからです。

理法の通り世の終わりが来るということでしょう。

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  8. 東芝 ジャンク債へ

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