確定 テクニカル・リセッション

7-9月期の第三四半期GDP速報値が出ました。

2015(平成27)年7~9月期四半期別GDP速報 (1次速報値)内閣府

実質GDP成長率は「マイナス0.2%」であり、年率換算で「マイナス0.8%」でした。

名目GDP成長率は「0.0%」であり、年率換算で「0.1%」です。

長期金利は「0.305%」です。

長期金利 日本相互証券

0.0% < 0.305%

名目成長率が長期金利を下回っています。

ドーマー条件を満たしていません。

プライマリーバランスも、もちろん均衡していない。

この状態が継続していけば政府債務は増加の一途を辿ることになる。

実質GDP成長率の予想値は「マイナス0.1%」でしたが、実際の数字は「マイナス0.2%」です。

年率換算の予想値は「マイナス0.2%」でしたが、結果は「マイナス0.8%」でした。

予想よりも悪く、マイナス幅が増加したということです。

第二四半期(4-6月期)の成長率も上方修正されました。

第一次速報値では年率換算「マイナス1.6%」だったのですが、「マイナス1.2%」に修正され、今回「マイナス0.7%」に上方修正されています。

第二四半期の成長率は年率換算「マイナス0.7%」であり、第三四半期の成長率は年率換算「マイナス0.8%」でした。

マイナス幅が悪化しています。

これで二期連続のマイナス成長ですから、テクニカル・リセッションが確定しました。

景気後退ということです。

通常、実質GDP成長率が二期連続マイナス成長となればリセッションと呼ばれ、リセッションが更に悪化し、深刻化していきますと、それを「恐慌」と呼びます。

こういった状況でアメリカは「利上げ」をするそうです。

確認しておきましょう。

景気の悪い時に利下げをし、金融緩和をするわけであり、景気が良い時には利上げをし、金融緩和を縮小していきます。

リセッションというのは不況と言っても差し支えないわけであり、同盟国の日本が「リセッション入り」したというのにアメリカは「利上げ」をするそうです。

俺は俺さえ良けりゃいいんだ。

アイ・ラブ・ミーだ。

木枯し紋次郎だ。

日本の不況入りなど、あっしには関わりのないことでござんす。

容赦なく12月「利上げ」をしそうな報道が目立ちます。

今週の18日と19日に日銀の金融政策決定会合がありますが、追加の金融緩和は期待薄と見られています。

物価がマイナスで、なおかつ二期連続のマイナス成長でも何もしないということです。

ETF購入枠ぐらいは拡大してもいいと思いますが、やはりゼロ・ヘッジが主張していたように日銀は追加の緩和ができなくなっているのかもしれません。

今週、日銀が何もしなければ今年は、12月17日と18日の後一回しか金融政策決定会合はありません。

日銀の金融政策決定会合 日程

原油価格はパリ同時多発テロによる逃避資金が入って4日ぶりに反発しています。

1バレル40.22ドルを付け、まさに40ドルを割れる瀬戸際でじりじりと持ち直しています。

単なる一時的な反発かもしれませんが、バレル40ドル割れは防いでいます。

日銀もようやく原油価格の見通しを下方修正しました。

アングル:直近の原油下落、日銀シナリオに影 世界経済低迷が背景か注視 ロイター

題が象徴的ですね。

日銀シナリオに影」、「世界経済低迷」だそうですが、なのにアメリカは「利上げ」をするそうです。

記事にはこうあります。

日銀は10月30日の金融政策決定会合で、2017年度までの原油価格の見通しを引き下げ、目標達成時期を従来の16年度前半から後半に先延ばしした。

この会合では、原油価格(ドバイ産)の見通しについて、足元で1バレル60ドルの水準から17年度末に70ドル程度まで上昇するシナリオを、足元で50ドルの水準が17年度末に60ドル台前半になるとのトレンドラインに引き下げた。

従来の原油価格「1バレル60ドル~70ドル」から「1バレル50ドル~60ドル」にトレンドラインを引き下げています。

60ドル以上から50ドル以上に10ドル見通しを引き下げています。

米原油在庫増やイラン産原油の供給拡大観測により、原油価格は11月に入り一段と下がり続けており、ドバイ産は足元で1バレル40ドル台まで下落している。

原油価格が現行水準のまま反転しなければ、次に経済・物価見通しを公表する来年1月の決定会合で、目標達成時期の再延期が議論になる可能性をにじませている。

原油価格が反転上昇しなければ、コアインフレ率2%の目標達成を「2016年度後半ごろ」から更に後ずれし、「2017年度の前半ごろ」に再延期するかもしれないと言っています。

しかして2017年に入りますと、4月から消費税が10%に上がるわけであり、景気条項を既に削除している限り、よほどのことがない限り、消費税は増税されます。

つまりもはやコアインフレ率2%達成は不可能なのではないか?

資源価格急落による減損処理で三菱商事が大幅な業績下方修正に踏み切るなど、日本企業の業績にも資源価格急落が響き始めた。

商社や鉄鋼、機械、メガバンクなど日本を代表する企業の業績にじわり下押し圧力がかかり始めており、日銀が物価上昇のけん引役として期待する来期以降の賃上げ議論にも影響しかねない。

三菱商事が大幅な業績下方修正」「商社や鉄鋼、機械、メガバンクなど日本を代表する企業の業績にじわり下押し圧力」「賃上げ議論にも影響」と厳しい言葉が並んでいるわけですが、なのにアメリカは「利上げ」をするそうです。

少ししつこいですかね。

ソース

恐慌の足音」がヒタヒタと・・。

ゴールドマンサックスが予想しているように来年2016年の3月に原油価格が1バレル20ドル台に突入しておりますと、薄氷は割れているはずであり、上記の記事の見通しは非常に甘いということになります。

出光興産、JXホールディングス、コスモエネルギーホールディングスに次いで昭和シェル石油も赤字転落です。

昭和シェル石油、原油価格下落で経常赤字に転落…2015年1-9月期決算

昭和シェル石油が発表した2015年1-9月期連結決算は、営業損益が27億円の赤字に転落した。

前年同期は272億円の黒字だった。

石油事業で原油価格の下落によるたな卸資産評価損の影響で、経常損益は40億円の赤字に転落した。

たな卸資産評価影響を除いた経常利益相当額は334億円で、前年同期と比べて24億円の増益だった。

当期損益は74億円の赤字だった。

通期業績見通しも赤字です。

経常利益は410億円の黒字予想から10億円の赤字、当期損益は270億円の黒字から90億円の赤字となる見込み。

原油価格の下落が石油業界の再編を加速しています。

業界2位の出光興産と5位の昭和シェル石油が経営統合しました。

2016年10月~17年4月までに両社が合併し、新会社を発足させます。

また業界1位のJXホールディングスが、3位の東燃ゼネラル石油に経営統合を打診しています。

石油業界、再編ドミノ=収益低下、首位JXも危機感 時事

しかして原油の需要は減少し、市場の縮小に歯止めがかかりません。

まだバレル40ドル台でこれです。

まだ原油価格が下落を続けていくとすれば、かなり厳しい環境に置かれることになります。

ゴールドマンの予測は恐ろしい予測です。

今の原油価格から更に半減していくと言っているわけですから、恐ろしいと思います。

風前の灯火となっている東芝、来年の今頃には存続しているかどうか分からないと言われているシャープとアサヒ通信グループ、最大顧客であるホンダに見捨てられ、トヨタに見捨てられ、日産からも見捨てられたエアバッグのタカタも会社存続が難しいと言われています。

なのにアメリカは「利上げ」をするそうです。

ちょっとしつこいですかね。

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