国際

日米のインフルエンザはピークを過ぎたか

メイン・サイトの件は了解しました。

まったく気づかず申し訳ありませんでした。

調べてみましたら、フォルダの階層構造がおかしくなっており、作った覚えのないフォルダにファイルが、すべて移動していました。

その結果、URLがすべて変更になっていました。

旧サイトも同様です。

何もしていないのですけどね。

ブログを作った時に新たなフォルダが自動的に作られたのかもしれません。

早急に復旧に努めますが、恐らく1、2週間ぐらいはかかりそうです。

復旧しましたら、「Creator’s Room Blog」の方でご報告します。

ご迷惑をおかけしました。

スーパー・ブルー・ブラッドムーンの影響でしょうか。

アメリカのダウが金額ベースで史上最大の大暴落を演じています。

ソース

1175ドル21セント」の暴落です。

パーセンテージベースですと「4.6%」と大した暴落ではないわけですが、暴落と言えば暴落です。

ちなみに日経平均も連れ安、いや連れ暴落です。

ソース

1071円」の暴落です。

常識では好調な雇用統計や減税によって経済が力強く成長するため、今後、長期金利が上昇していくことを見越した売りが出ていると言っています。

資金が株式市場から国債市場に流れるとみているようです。

後2割~3割の調整があると予想されています。

大体、1万9000ドル~2万1000ドルの範囲ですね。

ガンドラック氏は去年からアメリカの長期金利が「3%」を超えれば、経済の先行指標であるジャンク債市場が崩壊し、9兆ドルのリスク資産が暴落していくと言っていました。

3%」をレッドラインと見ている。

現在、アメリカ国債は「2.75%」ほどですが、一時は「2.88%」を超えていました。

アメリカ 10年 債券利回り

ダウのここ最近の動きはこうです。

ソース

日付が日本の日付になっていますが、1日引いて見てください。

ダウは1月26日に最高値「2万6616ドル」をつけ、ゆるやかな下落に転じています。

そしてスーパー・ブルー・ブラッドムーンの前日に「362ドル」の暴落を演じ、2月2日の「レグルス食」に前震のような「665ドル」の暴落をしています。

そして本震かどうか知りませんが、週明けの2月5日、史上最大の暴落「1175ドル」の大暴落となっています。

これを急激に上げ過ぎたダウの自然な調整局面と見るか、あるいはメルトダウンと見るか、意見は分かれるでしょうが、本日以降の動きは要注目です。

もしまたリーマンクラスの経済危機が起こりますと、既に体力を使い果たした世界の中央銀行に打つ手はありません。

唯一未だ体力の残るFEDが、QEを再開することぐらいでしょうか。

FRBは、世界経済を支えるアトラスになれるでしょうか。

アメリカでは現在、インフルエンザが猛威を振るっており、数千人規模の死者が出ると予測されています。

ピークは、日本でもアメリカでも今月の始めに過ぎたのではないかと思っていましたが、エピデミックと言われています。

ソース

3週目には全米50州のうち「49州」にアウトブレイク(拡大)していたのですが、4週目は「48州」に縮小しています。

このアメリカ疾病予防管理センター(CDC)のリポートを見ますと、まさに行列のできそうなリポートで、専門的な医学用語が頻繁に出てきますので、よく分からない。

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report CDC

ただ分かる部分を抜き出しますと、2017年~2018年のシーズンでインフルエンザ関連の小児死亡者は「53人」報告されている。

2017年10月1日~2018年1月27日の期間においてインフルエンザ関連で入院した人数は「1万4676人」です。

入院率は、10万人当たり「51.4人」。

65才以上は、10万人当たり「226.8人」。

次いで50才~64才までの入院率は、10万人当たり「54人」。

0才~4才では10万人当たり「33.3人」。

入院患者「1万4676人」中、A型インフルエンザは「1万2849人(87.5%)」、B型インフルエンザは「1762人(12.0%)」、インフルエンザA型とインフルエンザB型の同時感染では「35人(0.2%)」、何型が決定されなかったインフルエンザは「30人(0.2%)」だった。

プエルトリコと48州の州で広範なインフルエンザの活動が報告されている。

グアムとオレゴン州では、リージョナルなインフルエンザの活動があり、コロンビア特別区とハワイではローカルな活動となっている。

アメリカ領バージン諸島では、散発的なインフルエンザの活動が報告されているとあります。

子供が「53人」も死亡しておりますが、ただ3週目と比較すれば、減少傾向には見えます。

日本も似たような状況であり、最新の報告を見てもインフルエンザのピークは過ぎたように見えます。

インフルエンザの発生状況について 厚生労働省

全国にある約5000の定点医療機関のうち4週目では1医療機関当たり「52.35人」のインフルエンザ患者がおり、先週の「51.93人」から増加しています。

インフルエンザが日本でも猛威を振るっていると言われているのは、第1週から第4週までの入院患者の報告数を見れば分かります。

第1週(1月1日~1月7日) 入院患者数 7万9930人

第2週(1月8日~1月14日) 入院患者数 13万0682人

第3週(1月15日~1月21日) 入院患者数 25万6833人

第4週(1月22日~1月28日) 入院患者数 25万9063人

確かに3週までは激増している感じですが、4週目でピークに達したように見えます。

定点医療機関だけではなく、全国の医療機関を含めたインフルエンザ患者数の推計値は、3週目では「約283万人」でしたが、4週目では「274万人」とやや減少しています。

だからピークは過ぎているように見える。

ただここ10年では最も猛威を振るっているのは事実であり、2008年~2017年までで最も患者数が多かったのは、2012年の第5週の「42.62人」でした。

3週目の「51.93人」、4週目の「52.35人」というのは、ここ10年では2週連続、過去の記録を更新していることになります。

諸神霊が、ある種の模擬変動を見せている可能性もある。

太陽フレアと同時にアメリカの政府機関が一時的に閉鎖され、その後、インフルエンザが象徴するような疾病が、これまた一時的に猛威を振るった。

我々はこの順序で整理されるのかもしれません。

余談ですが、スーパー・ブルー・ブラッドムーンは、イタリアの「水の都」ベネツィアから水を消してしまいました。

Rodrigo Contreras Lopezさんの投稿 2018年2月2日金曜日

まるでケープタウンかパキスタンのようですね。

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